Component Snapshot

Technology Health Check: September

by Brad Gastwirth Global Head of Research and Market Intelligence

Main Summary (Details below): The tech sector is navigating a complex supply environment as demand for AI infrastructure continues to surge. Korean OEMs are accelerating the shift to HBM4 and GDDR7, tightening availability for AI accelerators due to limited CoWoS packaging. DDR4 pricing remains firm, while DDR5 adoption is progressing slowly amid compatibility issues.

GPU demand is strong across enterprise and hyperscaler segments, especially for Nvidia’s Blackwell-class chips, though allocation remains constrained. Storage trends are mixed: Gen4 SSD pricing is firming in North America, while Gen3 SSDs face liquidation pressure in Asia. Refurbished storage is gaining traction for cost-efficient AI workloads, with potential supply shifts ahead.

Hyperscalers are actively testing next-gen CPUs (Granite Rapids and Turin), and procurement strategies are evolving, highlighting hedging across platforms, GPU disaggregation, and cautious NAND buying. Overall, the sector is balancing innovation with supply constraints, setting the stage for a dynamic Q4.

Key Things to Watch

  • HBM4 and GDDR7 capacity prioritization appears to be accelerating at by Korean OEMs. Lead times for HBM3E have extended. The ongoing shift toward HBM4 is compounding allocation pressure on AI accelerators, as limited CoWoS packaging capacity continues to constrain GPU availability, particularly for Blackwell-class deployments.
  • DDR4 pricing remains elevated
  • AMD Turin and Intel Granite Rapids pre-launch samples are in testing at Tier 1 hyperscalers. Early results suggest thermal tuning requirements.

Subsector Breakdown

Memory (DRAM, DDR5, HBM, GDDR6)

  • DDR4: Still elevated YoY.
  • DDR5: Hyperscaler DDR5 (96GB DIMMs) tests continue. Compatibility issues remain a gating factor.
  • HBM3E / HBM4: Production shift now underway. AI accelerator backlog is growing due to limited CoWoS packaging slots.
  • GDDR6/GDDR7: Early sampling of GDDR7 appears to be in progress for 2026 gaming GPUs.

GPUs (Enterprise + Hyperscaler)

  • Blackwell (Nvidia) demand remains strong; H100 and H200 remain on allocation. Again, the shift toward HBM4 is compounding allocation pressure on AI accelerators, as limited CoWoS packaging capacity continues to constrain GPU availability,
  • China-bound SKUs (e.g. H20) seeing incremental demand uptick.
  • RTX 50-Series: Street pricing in EMEA and ASEAN is volatile. Some early indicators point to potential oversupply risk, though views remain mixed.

Storage (SSD, NAND, Refurb)

  • Gen4 SSDs (24TB/30TB): Price firming, especially in North America. Asia demand softer.
  • Gen3 SSDs: Supply remains long; some OEMs dumping into refurb channels (read this on one of the industry rags ---not sure if agree – I tried to bring in some refurb commentary)
  • Refurb Storage: Stable demand across Japan, Malaysia, and second-tier European markets. Refurbished HDD demand has seen a steady resurgence, largely tied to AI workloads that require cost-efficient cold and warm storage tiers. While SSDs continue to dominate high-intensity training, inference, and day-to-day operations. Pricing has climbed 5–10% in recent months but now appears to be stabilizing. Looking ahead, availability could shift materially if tier-1 hyperscalers redirect decommissioned drives into remarketing channels rather than destruction, a move that would expand supply and pressure pricing.

CPUs (Server Class)

  • Sapphire Rapids / Genoa: Still constrained.
  • Granite Rapids / Turin: Pre-launch samples in test at major cloud providers. Reports suggest strong performance but thermal/firmware friction.

Hyperscaler Procurement Intelligence

Global Trends

  • HBM allocation: Hyperscalers requesting volume-based reservation contracts.
  • GPU component splitting (e.g. separate memory or cooling assemblies) still in play as a workaround.
  • SSD restocking slowing? Buyers are waiting to see if NAND contracts correct by mid-September.
  • CPU hedging continuing as Granite Rapids and Turin samples expand into test environments.

North America

  • Mixed procurement patterns. It appears some buyers are advancing DDR5 and Gen5 SSD pilots; others still relying on DDR4/Gen3.
  • Networking activity (800GbE) picking up around custom inference builds.

Asia

  • China active on compliant GPU SKUs.
  • Korea/OEMs appear to be prioritizing DDR5 + Gen4 SSD ramp.
  • Japan seeing renewed interest in cert-refurb storage from SMB cloud integrators.

Enterprise Storage Market Update

Pricing & Inventory

  • 24TB/30TB Gen4 SSDs: Firm pricing, limited movement.
  • Gen3 SSDs: Flat to down 3% WoW. Liquidation pressure visible in Asia.
  • NAND contract dynamics: Quote durations shrinking. Tiered pricing becoming standard.

Regional Behavior

  • North America: Pricing stable; buyers focused on pre-Q4 pipeline balancing.
  • Asia: Buyers testing channel liquidity. Korea appears to be shifting excess Gen3 to local refurb.

Industry Headlines to Watch

1. SK Hynix and Samsung commit HBM4 roadmap volume

Signals permanent shift in DRAM prioritization. Watch for DDR5 capacity pinch.

2. Intel Granite Rapids and AMD Turin enter sampling

Early results mixed; potential platform disruptions if BIOS/thermal tuning lags.

3. GPU disaggregation model becoming semi-standardized

Integrators are now pricing board, memory, and cooling kits separately.

4. NAND pricing strategy tightening

Shortened quote durations point to supplier confidence. May drive short-term buying freeze.